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Power, conflict, and the world order.
President Donald Trump announced a $7 billion agreement with Anduril to build autonomous submarines and parts for Virginia-class attack submarines in Baltimore. The plan has prompted questions about the company’s experience, potential conflicts of interest and the strain on a shipbuilding workforce already facing shortages.
Zeihan on Geopolitics
Historian Daniel Bessner’s new book, “Imperialist Realism,” argues that cynicism about U.S. efforts to spread democracy coexists with a belief that the country must continue to lead and act abroad. In an interview for Responsible Statecraft’s Always at War podcast, he discusses the idea through former secretary of state Antony Blinken and the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Milorad Dodik’s party won in Republika Srpska despite his ban from office, while nationalist Bosniak and Croat parties dominated Bosnia and Herzegovina’s other entity. The October 4 election showed little sign of reform as Western influence wanes and Russia maintains ties with Dodik.
Thirty-two Iranian conservatives called on Sept. 28 for Iran to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and stop treaty-based cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The question remains unsettled, with a potential decision by parliament’s speaker and the views of the Supreme National Security Council likely to shape the next steps.
Zeihan on Geopolitics
Zeihan on Geopolitics
Israel’s finance minister and conservative figures from the United States addressed the National Conservatism Conference in Jerusalem, where speakers emphasized Israel’s security and ties with Washington. Critics said the gathering reflects an effort to secure continued American support as U.S. public opinion shifts over the war in Gaza.
Reports say the leaders of the United Arab Emirates and Egypt warned Israel of a possible Hamas attack before Oct. 7, 2023. Netanyahu denies receiving warnings as political opponents accuse him of failing to prevent the disaster and call for an inquiry.
Responsible Statecraft reports that pop artists face professional risks when they are seen yielding to pressure from the Israeli lobby over Gaza.
Microsoft has joined other technology companies described as ideologically driven defenders of Kyiv. Palantir is among them and is expanding its profit margins, according to Responsible Statecraft.
Zeihan on Geopolitics
The United States completed its troop withdrawal from Iraq on Sept. 30, and Iraq marked the occasion as “Sovereignty Day.” The departure ends a mission that began in 2014 to help Iraqi forces fight ISIS; security co-operation is expected to continue through embassy-based programs, while policy advocates urge a greater focus on diplomacy and development.
Zeihan on Geopolitics
A U.S. Typhon missile system deployed for exercises in Japan is to remain at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa at least temporarily, prompting renewed debate over the risks of the U.S. military presence along East Asia’s first island chain. The source argues that shifting forces to the second island chain could reduce tensions while still protecting core U.S. interests.
Iraqi Kurdistan announced on Sept. 21 that it had completed the long-delayed unification and reorganization of its Peshmerga forces under the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs. The move came nine days before the final U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, as questions remain about party control, militia disarmament and the future role of Western security partnerships.
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have increased since the war began, but remain below pre-war levels and depend on costly rerouting, naval protection and ship-to-ship transfers. Experts say continued attacks, strained fuel supplies and uncertainty over a possible deal with Iran are keeping markets under pressure.
A Responsible Statecraft analysis argues that China’s leverage with Washington and Tehran could help secure a lasting settlement and reduce the risk of further escalation. It proposes a region-wide ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the U.S. blockade and new negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme, with Beijing acting as guarantor.
Zeihan on Geopolitics
Rising diesel prices and fuel shortages are adding to Republicans’ political challenges as the midterm elections approach, including in states and districts they have carried comfortably. Polling shifts, candidates’ changing rhetoric and votes on war powers have sharpened the debate over the war’s economic effects.
Brazil’s election is expected to proceed to an Oct. 25 runoff, with polling showing Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva nearly tied. U.S. pressure on Lula’s government has become a campaign issue, while observers warn it could fuel Brazilian nationalism or carry economic costs for the incumbent.
Zeihan on Geopolitics
Israel’s August strike on Abu al-Duhur airbase in northwestern Syria followed claims that Turkey planned to use the site, allegations denied by Ankara and Damascus. The attack, near the Turkish border, has sharpened tensions and renewed calls for a clear channel to prevent incidents from escalating.
Clashes involving federal forces and rebel groups have killed hundreds in northern Ethiopia, as shifting alliances and disputes with neighbouring countries raise the risk of a broader war. The United States has so far taken a wait-and-see approach, while some U.S. senators are urging Secretary of State Marco Rubio to intervene.
Responsible Statecraft and Peter Zeihan, newest first.