Calgary could lose between 44,000 and 69,000 jobs if Alberta separates from Canada and the cost of trade rises, according to a report commissioned by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. The estimates are scenarios, not predictions, and depend on trade costs increasing by five to eight per cent and Calgary experiencing a proportional share of Alberta’s employment decline.

University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe prepared the analysis, which examines the effects of leaving Canada on trade, investment, workers and public finances. The report says more than 360,000 Calgary jobs, representing over 36 per cent of employment, depend on exports to other provinces or countries.

Those export connections include professional services, manufacturing, transportation, wholesale and retail trade, and tourism, as well as oil and gas. Separation would make Alberta’s provincial boundary an international border, potentially adding customs procedures, regulatory differences and other costs. The report says Alberta’s continued access to Canada’s existing trade agreements could not be assumed.

Drawing on research about the United Kingdom’s experience with Brexit, Tombe models higher costs for trade with the rest of Canada and international partners. If costs rose by five per cent, Calgary could have roughly 44,000 fewer jobs if its employment decline matched the provincial rate. At an eight per cent increase, the estimated loss rises to about 69,000.

The chamber also warns that uncertainty could influence business investment and workers’ decisions about whether to move to Alberta. “This report puts real data to the concerns we’ve been hearing in the business community for months,” Deborah Yedlin, the chamber’s president and CEO, said in a news release.

“A multinational company deciding where to build its next facility, expand operations or deploy new capital can choose among many jurisdictions,” Yedlin said in the release. The report notes that 49 per cent of Albertans were born outside the province, underscoring Alberta’s reliance on attracting people from elsewhere in Canada and abroad.

The report says Alberta’s finances after separation would depend on the economic effects and the cost of assuming federal responsibilities. Its main illustrative scenario shows an annual shortfall of about $9 billion. A more favourable set of assumptions instead produces a $1.6-billion surplus for an independent Alberta.

That surplus scenario assumes the economy contracts by five per cent, borrowing costs do not rise and non-defence federal operations can be replaced at Canada’s current national per-capita spending level. “Different assumptions would produce different numbers,” Tombe writes in the report.

Both outcomes would leave Alberta with considerably less than the roughly $19-billion difference between federal revenue collected in the province and federal spending there in 2024. Ottawa collected approximately $73 billion in Alberta and spent about $54 billion that year, according to the report.

An independent Alberta would have to assume duties currently handled by the federal government, including defence, border services and other national institutions. A smaller economy would also produce less tax revenue. To show the scale of the $9-billion shortfall scenario, Tombe estimates that eliminating it entirely through a sales tax could require adding eight percentage points to the five per cent currently collected federally. Alternatively, the corporate income tax rate could rise by roughly 10 percentage points.

The eventual economic impact would depend on negotiations, future trade arrangements and the policies adopted by an independent Alberta.

Based on reporting by CTV News Calgary.