Alberta could face weaker trade, reduced investment and a $9-billion gap in public finances if the province moves toward separation from Canada, according to a study released Monday by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. The analysis by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe examined the potential economic impact of an independent Alberta. Deborah Yedlin, the chamber’s president and CEO, said the findings offer no indication the province would be better off outside Canada.

Yedlin published her assessment as the 2026-27 NHL season was set to begin, drawing a comparison between separation and scoring on one’s own goal. She said the outcome of the Oct. 19 referendum could set Alberta on that course, putting the province’s economic future at risk. The referendum outcome, she wrote, could start Alberta down the path to separating from Canada.

Alberta is the country’s most trade-exposed province in both national and international markets, according to Yedlin’s account of the study. Nearly one in three Albertans, about 900,000 people, works in a sector that trades with other provinces or countries. Those jobs extend well beyond the energy sector, including more than 110,000 in manufacturing, 140,000 in finance, real estate and professional services, 65,000 connected to tourism and 31,000 in agriculture.

Calgary has an even larger share of employment tied to trade. More than 360,000 jobs in the city, or 36 per cent of employment, are connected to exports to other provinces or countries, Yedlin wrote. An independent Alberta would not necessarily see those jobs disappear, but the flow of exports would decline and become more costly, she said.

A new international border would add procedures and different regulations for a landlocked province that would need to negotiate trade agreements with other provinces. Yedlin said those requirements would add friction to transactions, increasing the time and cost of trade. Alberta also benefits from existing agreements Ottawa negotiated on behalf of every province, and she said there is no guarantee a small sovereign state would secure the same terms. New costs could arise to account for the risk of dealing with a smaller, landlocked jurisdiction.

The study also warns of a possible reduction in foreign direct investment. Using Brexit as a reference, Tombe’s analysis estimates Alberta could see a drop of as much as $15 billion, Yedlin said. Alberta currently attracts almost twice the national per-capita amount: $3,400 in the province compared with $1,800 elsewhere in Canada.

Yedlin argued that weaker investment could prompt a cycle of slower growth, fewer jobs and a smaller tax base, with businesses and residents potentially leaving. She said Alberta and Canada need labour and capital to build on the opportunities ahead, while labour supply is already a frequently raised constraint in the province and across the country. The Calgary Chamber released the study on the same day Yedlin’s commentary appeared.

The warning comes as Alberta approaches what Yedlin described as an investment boom and economic growth cycle not seen in the province for more than a decade. She pointed to the Canada-Alberta memorandum of understanding and changes signalled in the federal government’s recently tabled Bill C-69. Among other measures, she said, the bill would significantly lower tax rates on investment and commit to a one-project, one-review, one-year approval process.

Those changes could help advance projects that have been on hold, including pipelines, Yedlin wrote, but she said uncertainty could deter them. At a time when tariffs, international conflicts and changes to global trading systems are creating economic uncertainty, she urged Alberta to rely on its internal strengths rather than weaken them. She said cooperation within the federation offers more opportunities than separation, including for incomes, economic growth, investment and attracting the talent needed to accelerate resource development.

Leaving Canada would also require Alberta to replace services now provided by the federal government while dealing with lower tax revenues, according to Yedlin. The resulting $9-billion shortfall would have to be addressed through measures such as a corporate tax rate about 10 per cent higher or a sales tax that could reach 13 per cent. She said either approach would quickly undermine the Alberta Advantage, which Albertans have valued for decades.

Yedlin has led the Calgary Chamber of Commerce since joining it in July 2021. She acknowledged that the federation is not perfect, but argued Alberta has benefited from it for almost 160 years and should not break away while seeking investment and labour to expand resource development. She closed by returning to hockey, saying separation would be like scoring on one’s own net in the final game of the Stanley Cup final and losing everything.

Based on reporting by CTV News Calgary.