Have you ever been attracted to someone who just wasn’t right for you? Maybe they had a radiant smile or a charming personality, but under the surface, the two of you just weren’t compatible. If you’ve ever experienced a situation like that, then you might have something in common with the Edmonton Oilers.

Over the weekend, NHL insider Frank Seravalli suggested that the Oilers are currently fixated on Montreal Canadiens centre Kirby Dach. It’s a fit I’m not fond of.

“The interest in Edmonton borders on drooling,” wrote Seravalli. “The Oilers are intent on acquiring Dach at some point, whether that’s before the season starts, at the March 1 trade deadline, or next summer as a free agent.”

At first glance, it’s understandable why the Oilers might like Dach. He has a big six-foot-four frame, a strong skating stride, and decent hands - all tools that coaches value. Perhaps even more importantly, he’s a right-handed centre. Currently, the only centre on Edmonton’s roster who shoots right is Owen Michaels, who had a good training camp, but lacks NHL experience.

With that being said, the Oilers need to be careful here not to become too infatuated with this player. There are some red flags.

Kirby Dach’s injury history

When the Chicago Blackhawks selected Dach third overall in the 2019 Draft, it seemed like he was on his way to becoming a star. He produced over a point per game for the Saskatoon Blades, and even put up 23 points in 64 games as an 18-year-old in the NHL.

But then came the injuries.

Dach fractured his wrist playing for Team Canada in a World Junior pre-tournament game in late 2020. The injury required surgery and forced him to miss 34 games.

In October 2023, he was checked into the Chicago bench by Jarred Tinordi and tore both his ACL and MCL, sidelining him for the remainder of the 2023-24 season. Nearly a year and a half later, he tore the same ACL, which once again required surgery that ended his season. Just last year, he missed another 31 games after fracturing his foot. You get the idea.

At just 25 years old, Dach has had multiple knee surgeries and multiple fractures, and seven seasons into his NHL career, he’s only reached the 60-game mark twice. At this point, counting on Dach to be healthy for most of the season would be foolish.

Kirby Dach’s declining performance

Early in his career, Dach showed flashes that suggested he was on track to become the top six centre scouts projected him to be. After the Blackhawks traded Dach to the Canadiens, he had a solid first campaign in Montreal, scoring 14 goals and adding 24 assists for 38 points in 58 games in 2022-23.

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a metric that measures a player’s overall impact compared to a readily available replacement-level player. HockeyStats’ WAR model ranked Dach in the 63rd percentile offensively and the 76th percentile defensively at even strength in 2022-23. He was becoming an above-average second-line centre, but unfortunately, he suffered his first ACL tear the following season, and it’s been downhill ever since.

Despite being relegated to a bottom-six role last year, Dach’s offensive WAR dropped to the 37th percentile at even strength, while his defensive WAR fell to the 16th percentile. A deeper look under the hood at his microstats paints an unflattering picture.

According to All Three Zones, Dach’s individual offensive contributions have plummeted across the board. His playmaking metrics, such as shot assists, chance assists, and high-danger assists, ranked near the top of the league back in 2023. The ascending top-six playmaker Dach used to be has disappeared following major injuries.

Is Kirby Dach engaged enough to play for Mike Babcock?

Dach’s injury history and declining performance are reason enough to avoid him, but there’s a recent quote from Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis that may point to another issue.

“It’s about being alert and continuing to play the whole game,” said St. Louis when asked what he wants to see from Dach. “It’s not just one thing, it’s staying alert and working hard.”

I don’t want to overreact here, but this doesn’t sound like a glowing endorsement from his head coach. Anytime a coach says that a player needs to play the whole game and stay alert, that’s a bad sign. In Mike Babcock’s system, which appears to be predicated on pressure, details, and hard work, do the Oilers really need a player whose consistency and engagement are in question?

The bottom line for Kirby Dach and the Oilers

Dach has plenty of physical tools that may make him attractive to the Oilers, but the front office needs to be careful. They shouldn’t become too enamoured with tools that Dach can’t use as well as he did before the injuries piled up. His production is down, his play driving is down, and his cap hit is still $3.6 million.

If the Oilers are really “drooling” over this player, they may need to take a step back and look beyond the surface. Look at the injury history of players they’ve already committed to, like Jake Walman and Frederik Andersen. They don’t need to add another. Look at the precious few trade assets they have left if someone game-changing becomes available. They don’t need to waste them here.

Is Dach worth a cheap flyer for a rebuilding team with cap space? Maybe. But he’s a far too risky target for the Oilers.

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