Separatist efforts in Alberta and Quebec are unlikely to succeed while Canadians feel insecure and anxious about the future, pollster David Coletto says. He said uncertainty would have to ease for a “yes” vote to succeed in either province.

Coletto’s firm, Abacus Data, has studied what it calls the “precarity mindset” in Canada over the past year. He said the conditions that could support a sovereignty push in either province are weaker now than they were in the 1990s: voters are more anxious, economic uncertainty is higher, the geopolitical environment is more volatile and external threats have increased “the perceived value of national cohesion.”

Alberta’s election agency recently approved a proposed referendum question on separating from Canada. The question could go to voters if organizers collect enough signatures. In Quebec, Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to hold a sovereignty referendum during his first term if his party wins the general election scheduled for Oct. 5, 2026.

Based on reporting by Global News.