Alberta could face winter temperatures as much as 7 C above normal if a forecast super El Niño develops as expected, with less snowfall and snowpack potentially leaving parts of the province drier by spring. Climate scientists say warmer conditions could increase evaporation and reduce the water that reaches rivers and soils, while wildfire officials say long-range projections are not yet guiding plans for 2027.

Trevor Hadwen, an agroclimate specialist with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, said the combination of more evaporation and less snow could affect water supplies. “We’re expecting more evaporation, less snowfall and less snowpack going into the spring, which will impact the amount of moisture and water that gets into the system,” he said.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs every few years when Pacific Ocean water warms more than half a degree above normal. The U.S. National Weather Service puts the chance that this year’s event will be historic at 75 per cent, with ocean warming forecast to peak at 3.5 C.

Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said the event is already exceeding previous ones by several measures. “By most measures, the strength of that event is already exceeding the strongest ones that were observed previously,” he said. Even a few degrees of warming can shift weather patterns well beyond the Pacific, he added: “Even a couple of degrees or more warming may not sound like a lot. But because of its effects on the atmosphere, it can rearrange seasonal climate patterns across much of the world.”

Merryfield and Hadwen expect Alberta to see milder winter temperatures and less precipitation in the Rocky Mountains. Hadwen said historic rainfall replenished moisture in some areas, but that reserve could be depleted quickly if winter temperatures rise to the forecast level of 7 C above average.

“We’re looking at some really dry conditions, some really hot conditions going into winter, so losing a lot of moisture there,” Hadwen said. He questioned whether enough subsurface moisture would remain after winter to support agriculture in spring. “The question is: is your region going to have enough left over at the end of winter in that subsurface moisture to benefit us in the spring for agricultural purposes?”

Alberta relies heavily on snowmelt and precipitation for much of its water, according to the Canada Water Portal, leaving the province vulnerable to drought. If snowfall is limited or melts rapidly in spring, less water remains for summer, when demand is high.

Callum Reid, press secretary for Alberta’s Minister of Agriculture, said changing weather patterns, including El Niño, can have “significant impacts on soil health, crop and forage development, and livestock production.” Drier years often bring lower crop yields, higher prices for forage and hay, and greater reliance on irrigation, all of which raise producers’ costs, Reid said. He cautioned that “it’s still too early to say with confidence what the coming winter will have in store.”

The stakes for producers are reflected in recent losses. In 2023, one of the five strongest El Niño events on record, drought-related payouts reached a record $326.5 million. Steve Souto, co-owner of Steve & Dan’s Fresh BC Fruit, said local producers are also contending with earlier damage from heavy rain, hail and tornadoes. Some have lost their businesses, while others have little to fall back on if 2027 brings another difficult year.

“We farmers are at the mercy of the weather, and it’s for sure a hard situation to deal with,” Souto said. His business, which depends on farms in Alberta and British Columbia, suffered a major blow two years ago when a warm spell was followed by a cold snap. “All the trees started thinking of spring already, and then it dropped back in temperature. So things were already starting to bloom, and we lost all the stone fruits,” he said. “Trees, they have to go into dormancy and stay in dormancy, and so this fluctuation in weather makes it very, very difficult for farming.”

The 2026 El Niño is expected to strengthen through the end of the year. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts a near-100-per-cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027. Merryfield said its influence is expected to fade starting in March or April 2027.

He also expects the heat released from the ocean into the atmosphere to contribute to a new global temperature record. “We are expecting with almost certainty that the record will be broken again in 2027, just three years after the last record, which was set following a much lesser El Niño event,” Merryfield said.

Two of Alberta’s worst wildfire seasons coincided with El Niño events. The province recorded 883,441 hectares burned in 2019, then that record was surpassed in 2023, when 2,211,900 hectares burned.

Derrick Forsythe of Alberta Wildfire said officials are aware of modelling for the incoming El Niño but have not made plans based on it. After the 2023 season, the agency moved its wildfire-season start from March 1 to late February to allow more preparation time because El Niño conditions were present heading into 2024. “I haven’t heard of anybody talking about that for this year coming yet,” Forsythe said.

Forsythe described long-range projections as “waypoints” that indicate possible outcomes, rather than forecasts to treat as “gospel.” They can provide a general warning of a warmer, drier winter, he said, but “It’s not driving our operations for 2027.” A late-season snowfall could offset a dry winter, while a wet winter could still precede a severe fire season if warm spring temperatures dry fuels early. “What happens through the March to April timeframe … that will determine the level of activity we’re going to have more than anything,” he said.

The El Niño’s effects are expected to be milder in Alberta than in some other parts of the world, where severe drought is already occurring. A recent research report estimated the super event could contribute to as many as 451,000 additional heat-related deaths between June and the end of February. CTV News Edmonton’s Noah Rishaug contributed to the report.

Based on reporting by CTV News Edmonton.