Global News Edmonton has reported:

Albertans will vote Monday on a province-wide referendum about the province’s future, including whether to hold a second vote on separation. Ipsos polling suggests voters will reject that proposal: 23 per cent say they will vote to trigger another referendum, while 70 per cent say they will vote to remain part of Canada. The outcome on nine other questions about immigration, federal programs and provincial autonomy is less certain.

September Ipsos polling found that 65 per cent of Albertans supported giving the province more control over immigration. Another 59 per cent supported denying access to federally funded programs to people without legal status in Canada. The poll tested support for the general ideas, rather than the referendum’s specific wording, so the results indicate how Albertans feel about the issues broadly.

Support for both proposals was higher among Canadians outside Alberta. In that group, 74 per cent favoured giving their province greater control over immigration, and 67 per cent supported denying federal program access to people without legal status. The findings suggest Premier Danielle Smith’s positions reflect views held by many Albertans and by a larger share of Canadians elsewhere.

A broader national debate on immigration is likely, particularly if a majority of Alberta voters support some of the policy proposals. Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney, a federalist and one of the most prominent advocates for voting “no” on separation, has called for such a debate. There is also growing evidence that public agreement on immigration is becoming an issue at the ballot box.

The referendum could put Alberta’s government at odds with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government. Canada’s federal immigration minister recently signalled that the country plans to open its immigration targets to allow more immigrants, even as housing affordability remains a concern. Polls consistently identify affordability as a major issue, while Alberta is proposing to take control over immigration from the federal government and establish different levels of social support for people with and without legal status.

The polling indicates that Canadians support both proposals. People are weighing how immigration should be managed and what it costs amid a housing and affordability crisis. Smith has urged Albertans to vote “yes to the nine,” saying immigration costs are prohibitively expensive. Carney has called on voters to vote no.

Smith and Carney are on the same side regarding Alberta’s future in Canada, but differ on immigration. They have found common ground on issues including pipelines and support for the growth of Alberta’s energy industry. In polling, Albertans view Carney most favourably and Smith least favourably, a notable result for a Liberal prime minister in Alberta. On immigration and provincial rights, however, Smith appears closer to the views of most Canadians than Carney is.

Whatever the result, the referendum is expected to affect politics across Canada. Alberta separatists have said they will continue pursuing the issue and will treat the result of the “stay or leave” vote as a permanent decision on their project. The question of separation is therefore unlikely to disappear quickly, regardless of the vote’s outcome.

The focus on Alberta’s place in Canada has also drawn attention from how the province could operate if it remains. If Smith wins majority support on some or all of the other nine questions, she may take that as a mandate to act. She could work with other premiers to press the federal government for more direct provincial control over immigration and other rights.

Smith may find an ally in Quebec premier-elect Paul St.-Pierre Plamondon. He has pledged to use the early days of his premiership, as leader of an overtly separatist party, to advance provincial interests. He has deferred a referendum on Quebec separation until President Trump leaves office.

During Quebec’s recent provincial campaign, the incoming premier also promised to reduce the number of immigrants allowed into the province. He sought powers beyond those Quebec already holds under an agreement dating back 35 years, which gives the province more control over immigration than most provinces have. Smith is seeking similar powers for Alberta.

Smith also has political reasons to challenge Ottawa. Some members of her party believe she has not gone far enough on separation. They oppose her pledge not to revisit the matter if Monday’s vote favours the status quo, while some separatist supporters have vowed to try to oust her at the upcoming leadership review.

Smith has campaigned strongly for a united Canada with a strong Alberta and said she voted “no” on the separation question. She voted “yes” on the other nine. The separation question may have been intended to appease her base, while the remaining questions could point to broader aims: gaining more provincial control over immigration, controlling costs and ensuring that taxpayer-funded services go only to people legally allowed to be in Alberta.

The results could have consequences beyond Alberta’s future as a province within Canada. The vote on immigration and the other questions may shape debate across the country over the next year and beyond.