When Mercedes Could Secure the 2026 F1 Championships: The Numbers

Mercedes leads Ferrari by 134 points in the constructors’ standings with six rounds left, while Kimi Antonelli could clinch the drivers’ title in Austin or Mexico. The team’s constructors’ crown could be decided in Mexico under a specific set of results, but Brazil is a more likely setting.

Autosport has reported:

Mercedes is on course to win both Formula 1 championships in 2026, with six rounds remaining and 11 victories from 17 grands prix. Kimi Antonelli leads the drivers’ standings by 102 points, while Mercedes has a 134-point advantage over Ferrari in the constructors’ table. Antonelli could secure his first world title in Austin next weekend, though Mexico the following week is considered more likely. The team may need longer to clinch the constructors’ championship.

Mercedes’ position reflects a strong start to the season under new regulations, with most of its wins coming early before rivals narrowed the gap. The team is pursuing its first drivers’ and constructors’ double since the COVID-affected 2020 season. It last won the constructors’ title in 2021, before Red Bull and McLaren moved ahead during the ground-effect era.

There are 258 points still available in the constructors’ championship, assuming the Qatar and Abu Dhabi grands prix proceed amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Four teams remain mathematically capable of winning. Mercedes has 578 points, Ferrari 444, McLaren 339 and Red Bull 332. Fifth-place Racing Bulls has 100, 478 behind Mercedes, followed by Alpine with 68, Haas with 30, Audi with 23, Williams with 12, Aston Martin with seven and Cadillac with zero.

The United States Grand Prix in Austin will leave 215 points available in the championship. McLaren and Red Bull are likely to be eliminated from contention after that race because they would need to be within 214 points of Mercedes. Mercedes has won nine more grands prix than each team, giving it the countback advantage if either rival ends the race 215 points behind.

For McLaren to remain in contention, it would have to outscore Mercedes by at least 25 points in Texas; Red Bull would need to gain at least 32. Ferrari is therefore the German team’s only realistic threat. The Scuderia will remain within 214 points of Mercedes after Austin regardless of the result, so the constructors’ title cannot be settled there.

Ferrari’s worst-case outcome in Austin would be a double non-points finish while Mercedes takes first and second place. That would widen Mercedes’ lead to 177 points. In that scenario, Mercedes would travel to Mexico City with a chance to claim its ninth constructors’ title, which would draw it level with Williams. Ferrari leads the all-time tally with 16, followed by McLaren with 10.

If Qatar and Abu Dhabi go ahead, 172 points would remain across the four grands prix after Mexico. With a 177-point lead, Mercedes would need to ensure Ferrari does not outscore it by six or more points in Mexico to clinch the title there. That outcome is difficult to reach: across the season so far, Mercedes has not taken a full points haul from a grand prix while Ferrari scored none. Sprint races are excluded from the comparison because none remain in 2026.

The race-by-race points totals show how close the teams have sometimes been. Mercedes and Ferrari scored 43 and 27 points respectively in Australia and China. Mercedes took 37 to Ferrari’s 23 in Japan and 37 to 12 in Miami, then fell behind in Canada, 25 to 30, and Barcelona, 18 to 25. It led 25 to 18 in Monaco and 40 to 14 in Austria, while Ferrari won the points comparison at the British Grand Prix, 40 to 18.

Mercedes scored 25 points to Ferrari’s 30 in Belgium, 21 to 22 in Hungary, and 33 to 22 in the Netherlands. It then took 43 to Ferrari’s eight in Italy, 35 to 12 in Spain and 35 to 20 in Azerbaijan. Ferrari outscored Mercedes 27 to 18 in Malaysia and 26 to 17 in Singapore.

Across the 17 grands prix, Mercedes has outscored Ferrari by an average of 7.6 points per race. If that average continued over the next two rounds, the gap would be 149 points, leaving Ferrari within reach after Mexico. The Brazilian Grand Prix, the round after Mexico, is considered the more likely point for Mercedes to become constructors’ champion.

Antonelli’s individual title could come sooner. He and George Russell currently lead the drivers’ standings for Mercedes, with Antonelli holding the 102-point margin. The young Italian could clinch the championship at the United States Grand Prix in Austin, although Mexico is the likelier venue for his first world title.