CTV News Calgary has reported:

Support for Alberta remaining in Canada has increased ahead of the Oct. 19 referendum, while backing for a vote to begin the legal process toward a future separation referendum has held steady, according to an Abacus Data survey of 1,021 eligible Alberta voters. Conducted online from Oct. 7 to 13, the poll found 68 per cent would vote for Alberta to remain a province of Canada, compared with 64 per cent in September. Twenty-four per cent would vote for the provincial government to begin the legal process, unchanged from the previous survey.

Seven per cent of respondents were undecided, and one per cent said they would skip the referendum question. Among voters who had made a choice, 74 per cent favoured remaining in Canada and 26 per cent supported beginning the separation process. The findings indicate that some voters who were undecided in September had settled on remaining in Canada by October.

“This is much more of a movement from people who were undecided in September to having made up their mind in October. And those people who were previously undecided are breaking significantly towards the remain in Canada side,” said Robson Fletcher, a data and storytelling strategist with Abacus Data. “We haven’t seen a big shift in the number of people who plan to vote for option two,” Fletcher said. “Those undecided or would-skip people from September have largely moved into the voting for the Remain in Canada option in October.”

The referendum does not ask Albertans to vote directly on independence. The second option on the tenth question would authorize the provincial government to start the legal process required to hold a later, binding referendum on separation.

A majority in every region surveyed said they would vote to remain in Canada, including rural Alberta, where support for beginning the process has been strongest. The poll found 77 per cent of Edmonton respondents and 75 per cent of Calgary respondents would choose to remain. In small cities and bedroom communities, 62 per cent backed remaining in Canada.

In rural Alberta, 57 per cent said they would vote to remain, while 35 per cent supported beginning the separation process. Rural Alberta had been the only region in September where remaining in Canada did not have majority support. “Just over half of even rural voters now say they plan to vote to remain in Canada,” Fletcher said. “Still, rural Alberta remains an area where the desire and the plan to vote to begin the separation process remains relatively strong.” The survey shows the remain position has broadened across regions, though it does not establish whether particular individuals changed their minds.

The poll also found a split among supporters of Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party. Among current UCP supporters, 52 per cent said they would vote to begin the legal process toward a future separation referendum, while 44 per cent would vote to remain in Canada. Among provincial NDP supporters, 93 per cent said they would vote to remain. Of respondents who supported beginning the separation process, 77 per cent currently supported the UCP.

Support for starting the process does not necessarily mean a voter favours independence. Among respondents planning to choose the second option, 63 per cent said they would vote for Alberta to separate from Canada in a future binding referendum. Eleven per cent said they would vote to remain in Canada, 22 per cent said their choice would depend on circumstances, and four per cent were unsure. Abacus Data estimated that 18 per cent of Alberta voters would support independence if asked directly, unchanged from September.

Respondents who favoured the second option were also asked why they would vote that way. Independence was the main reason for 32 per cent. Another 23 per cent wanted Alberta to negotiate a better deal within Canada, while 22 per cent believed Albertans deserved a direct say on separation. Nineteen per cent wanted to send Ottawa a message without necessarily leaving Canada.

“There are a variety of different motivations that they identify as to why they want to vote to commence the legal process,” Fletcher said. “Some of it is to send a message, some of it is a purely democratic desire that Albertans ought to have the option to have this vote, and some just have a sense of frustration as well, and this is a way to express that frustration.”

Most voters who had decided how to vote said they were unlikely to change their minds before referendum day. Seventy-six per cent of decided voters were completely certain of their choice. Certainty was higher among those planning to remain in Canada, at 84 per cent, than among supporters of the second option, at 61 per cent.

Eleven per cent of respondents said they had already voted by mail; among them, 93 per cent said they voted to remain in Canada. Another 49 per cent said they definitely intended to vote on or before Oct. 19. Among respondents who had already voted or definitely intended to vote, 75 per cent supported remaining in Canada and 24 per cent favoured starting the separation process.

“What we’ve seen in this October poll is that enthusiasm gap has shrunk,” Fletcher said. He said that made it less likely that stronger turnout among supporters of the second option would produce a closer result than the polling suggested. “That is looking less likely now because that enthusiasm gap appears to be narrowing, and the remain in Canada voters are more fired up than ever,” he said.

Reported turnout intentions varied substantially by age. Among Albertans aged 60 and older, 85 per cent said they had already voted or definitely intended to vote. The figure was 38 per cent among respondents under 30.

Respondents expected the second option to receive more support than its 24 per cent in stated voting intentions. Asked what share of the vote they thought it would get, respondents estimated an average of 40 per cent. Those supporting the second option expected it to receive an average of 57 per cent, enough for a majority, while respondents who planned to remain in Canada estimated it would receive 33 per cent.

Fletcher linked expectations in part to the information people encounter. “I think that has a lot to do with the information ecosystems that we all live in right now,” he said, adding that people in rural communities whose social circles and social media feeds are dominated by UCP supporters may see more support for the second option around them. The gap between expected support and stated voting intentions could leave some voters, particularly second-option supporters, surprised if the result resembles the survey findings.

The survey also examined how respondents identify with Alberta and Canada. Among those planning to remain in Canada, 76 per cent said they felt strongly attached to Canada and 51 per cent felt strongly attached to Alberta. Among respondents supporting the second option, 68 per cent felt strongly attached to Alberta, compared with 21 per cent who felt strongly attached to Canada.

Party affiliation showed a similar pattern. Among UCP supporters, 68 per cent reported a strong attachment to Alberta and 39 per cent to Canada. Among NDP supporters, 84 per cent felt strongly attached to Canada, while 42 per cent felt strongly attached to Alberta. The findings point to different views of identity and belonging within the debate over Alberta’s relationship with Canada.

Despite those divisions, respondents were more likely to say Alberta’s best days were ahead than behind it. Forty-seven per cent said the province’s best days were still to come, 30 per cent said they were behind it, and 23 per cent were unsure. Optimism was greater among supporters of beginning the separation process: 59 per cent said Alberta’s best days were ahead, compared with 44 per cent of those planning to remain in Canada. In both groups, 31 per cent said the province’s best days were behind it. The findings indicate that support for changing Alberta’s relationship with Canada does not necessarily stem from pessimism about the province’s future.

Abacus Data conducted the survey online from Oct. 7 to 13, 2026, with 1,021 eligible Alberta voters recruited through partner online panels. It weighted results using census data to reflect Alberta’s population. Because the research used a non-probability online panel, a conventional probability-based margin of error cannot be assigned. Abacus Data paid for the survey.