Responsible Statecraft has reported:

The war in Iran has become one of the most important issues shaping voters’ midterm decisions, ranking ahead of immigration and crime in two national polls released as election day approaches. Surveys by Fox News and The Associated Press-NORC put the war among voters’ four leading concerns, behind only economy-related issues, government corruption and health care.

The shift comes as President Donald Trump’s performance on immigration and crime had helped him in 2024. Polling before and after that election showed voters ranked those issues as higher priorities than foreign policy.

In the Fox News survey, 75 per cent of respondents said they were either “extremely” concerned about the war, at 42 per cent, or “very” concerned, at 33 per cent. The AP-NORC poll found 62 per cent of registered voters listed the war as one of the most important issues, while another 31 per cent called it “an important issue, but not one of the most important.”

The Fox poll also found that six in 10 voters oppose U.S. military action against Iran. Those opposed to the action favoured Democratic congressional candidates by 56 points.

Economic and foreign policy concerns overlap in some responses. Voters cited gas prices and the cost of living as economic issues, while disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have fuelled an energy crisis that has driven those concerns.

The polls were conducted over roughly the same period. AP-NORC surveyed 1,119 adults, including 925 registered voters, from Oct. 8 to 12; its margin of error was 3.9 points. Fox surveyed 1,202 registered voters from Oct. 9 to 12, with a 2.5-point margin of error.

The surveys also found low ratings for Trump’s foreign policy. AP-NORC recorded approval of 33 per cent, the lowest result across eight polls the firm conducted during Trump’s second term. Fox measured approval at 35 per cent, its lowest figure since Trump returned to office.

Republican candidates have responded to the war’s political impact. In close races in Michigan, Maine, Iowa and elsewhere, Republican nominees have called for a swift end to the conflict, although some have argued that it can still be concluded through military action.

In private audio leaked to Axios earlier this month, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate candidate, said his campaign’s primary problems were driven largely by the war in Iran and its effect on gas prices.

On Tuesday, Rep. Tom Tiffany, a Republican from Wisconsin who is running for governor, said it was time to “wrap up” the war. “The president is doing what he believes is best for the United States of America,” Tiffany said. “What I’m focused on is being the best governor possible in Wisconsin.”

Election analysts have compared the coming midterms with 2006, when an unpopular Middle East war and economic frustration at home helped produce a Democratic wave. Democrats gained six Senate seats and 31 House seats that year. Jim Antle of the Washington Examiner wrote in Responsible Statecraft this week, “today, the public has even less patience for the current war than in 2006.”