CTV News Calgary has reported:

Most Albertans surveyed trust Elections Alberta to count ballots fairly in Monday’s referendum on the province’s future in Canada, but far fewer expect both sides of the separation debate to accept the result. The Abacus Data poll found 68 per cent trust the count, while 40 per cent trust that both sides will respect the outcome and 44 per cent distrust that they will.

The referendum on Oct. 19 asks voters whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada or whether the provincial government should begin the legal process required to hold a binding referendum on separation. The poll suggests many voters have confidence in the voting process but doubt the vote will resolve political divisions over Alberta’s relationship with Canada.

Confidence in the count crossed the referendum divide. Among respondents planning to vote to remain in Canada, 71 per cent trusted that ballots would be counted fairly. The same share of those supporting the option to begin the separation process said they trusted the count.

Views on whether the result would be respected were more divided. In each of those two voting groups, 46 per cent said they distrusted that both sides would respect the final result. “Albertans are pretty split on whether the outcome of the referendum will be respected by both sides of the debate,” said Robson Fletcher, a data and storytelling strategist with Abacus Data. “Albertans trust the process and the outcome, they just don’t trust that other Albertans will respect the outcome.”

The divide was sharper by party support: 59 per cent of provincial NDP supporters distrusted that the result would be respected, compared with 39 per cent of UCP supporters. The survey also found that 57 per cent trusted Elections Alberta could count votes without outside interference, while 37 per cent trusted that other countries would not interfere in the outcome.

Those results describe respondents’ confidence and expectations. They are not evidence that interference has occurred or that either side intends to reject the result.

Most respondents expect the separation question to return even if Alberta votes to remain in Canada. Overall, 61 per cent expected Albertans would be asked to vote again on separation or the province’s place in Canada at some point. That share rose to 81 per cent among people supporting the option to begin the separation process, and stood at 55 per cent among those planning to vote to remain.

Asked what would happen if Alberta voted to remain in Canada, just 14 per cent said they believed the issue would be settled for a generation or longer. Another 26 per cent expected it to fade before returning, while 23 per cent anticipated another referendum push within a few years. A further 24 per cent thought the independence movement would continue growing regardless of the result.

Expectations varied by location. In rural Alberta, 34 per cent expected the movement to keep growing, while only five per cent believed the issue would be settled for a generation. Across the province, 73 per cent expected the separation issue to return in some form after a vote to remain in Canada.

“There’s a lot of political risk in this for Danielle Smith, I think even after the referendum is decided,” Fletcher said. “A lot of Albertans also said in this October poll that they don’t expect this issue to go away. Even if we have a decisive vote in the Oct. 19 referendum, a lot of Albertans expect this issue is going to continue to be an issue in Alberta politics for some time to come.”

Despite expecting the debate to continue, most respondents wanted the provincial government to turn to other concerns after the referendum. Sixty-seven per cent said it should turn the page and focus on everyday issues, including health care, affordability and jobs. Another 22 per cent wanted the province to keep pressing Ottawa for greater autonomy, and 11 per cent were unsure.

A majority in every region favoured a shift in focus. The share was 73 per cent in Edmonton, 69 per cent in Calgary and 60 per cent in rural Alberta. Among respondents planning to vote to remain in Canada, 85 per cent wanted the government to move on. Among those supporting the option to begin the separation process, 63 per cent wanted it to continue pressing for greater provincial autonomy.

UCP supporters were nearly evenly split on the government’s next steps. Among them, 45 per cent wanted it to turn the page and focus on everyday matters, while 47 per cent wanted it to keep pressing for greater autonomy; eight per cent were unsure. By comparison, 94 per cent of provincial NDP supporters wanted the government to move on. The results point to competing expectations among the governing party’s supporters for Premier Danielle Smith after the vote.

Respondents also expressed limited optimism about relations between Alberta and the federal government. Seventeen per cent expected relations to improve after the referendum, 42 per cent expected no change and 25 per cent expected them to deteriorate.

When asked about developments they considered likely in the year after the vote, 68 per cent expected the Alberta government to pursue additional provincial powers, such as a provincial pension plan or police force. Sixty per cent believed immigrants would avoid Alberta because of potential restrictions on access to social services. Fifty-five per cent expected increased tensions between Alberta and other provinces, and 52 per cent thought businesses would delay or cancel investments because of uncertainty over the province’s future.

“The entire debate around separation, the fact that we’re having this referendum, they worry about it harming the economy,” Fletcher said. “And they worry about it creating this type of uncertainty that does reduce business investment, that has negative economic consequences. This has been evident for quite some time in public opinion that Albertans feel this debate is having negative consequences for the Alberta economy.”

These figures capture respondents’ expectations, not forecasts that the developments will occur. Only 32 per cent thought Albertans who disagree about separation were likely to move past their differences and come together, while 51 per cent considered that unlikely.

The poll also asked how respondents would vote if a provincial election were held. Among decided voters, 47 per cent said they would support Danielle Smith’s UCP and 42 per cent said they would support Naheed Nenshi’s Alberta NDP. The five-point gap was narrower than in September, when the UCP led 52 per cent to 39 per cent.

The Progressive Tory Party, led by Peter Guthrie, had six per cent support among decided voters, while five per cent supported other parties. The provincial picture differed between the two largest cities and the rest of Alberta. In Calgary, the NDP had 47 per cent support compared with 44 per cent for the UCP; in Edmonton, the NDP led 55 per cent to 31 per cent.

Outside those cities, the UCP had a wider advantage. In rural Alberta, it received 57 per cent support compared with 32 per cent for the NDP. In small cities and bedroom communities, the UCP led 56 per cent to 35 per cent.

The survey does not establish whether the change in voting intentions was caused by the referendum debate. Fletcher said respondents were not asked why their intentions had changed, so the poll cannot determine that the referendum caused the shift.

“We did see a significant shift in support away from the UCP in our September poll and towards the NDP in our October poll. The UCP still held a small lead in our October poll, but it was significantly reduced,” Fletcher said. “The fact is, Albertans largely have a negative view towards this entire process. This is a process that has been initiated and championed by the provincial UCP government, so it’s… there’s certainly reason to think that that may be connected to the decline in support that we’ve seen for the UCP, even in this past month.”

Abacus Data surveyed 1,021 eligible Alberta voters online from Oct. 7 to 13, 2026. Participants were recruited through partner online panels, and the results were weighted using census data to reflect Alberta’s population. Because the poll used a non-probability online panel, a conventional probability-based margin of error cannot be assigned. Abacus Data said a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size would have a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Abacus Data paid for the survey.