CTV News Calgary has reported:

Most respondents to an Alberta survey said the province should not hold a referendum on separation from Canada, as Albertans prepare to vote Monday on 10 questions about the province’s future. The poll, conducted by Abacus Data for the Alberta Federation of Labour (AFL), found 56 per cent opposed holding the referendum, 30 per cent supported it and 14 per cent were unsure.

Opposition extended to some people who voted for Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) in the last provincial election. Among those respondents, 44 per cent said the referendum should not take place and 47 per cent supported holding it. Ninety-two per cent of respondents who supported the NDP said the vote was unnecessary.

Political scientist Lori Williams said the results raise questions about the political consequences for Smith regardless of how the referendum turns out. “The bigger question for Danielle Smith going forward, even if she were to win on all of these questions, is the reality that (the) majority of Albertans didn’t want this referendum,” Williams said.

Williams said the decision to hold the vote has created challenges for Smith that could continue well beyond referendum day. “She’s got a set of issues around anger and trust, and an opportunity between now and the next election to try to win that back.”

The survey asked respondents to choose up to two words to describe their feelings about the referendum. Frustration was selected by 43 per cent, making it the most common response, while 31 per cent selected anger. Hopefulness was reported by 20 per cent, excitement by 12 per cent and happiness by six per cent.

Among the 598 respondents who expressed anger or frustration, 52 per cent placed the most blame for calling the referendum on Smith and 26 per cent blamed separatist groups. The most frequently cited reason for negative feelings was the cost of holding the vote, followed by concern about its effect on Canadian unity.

Asked whether the UCP government should have sought an electoral mandate before calling the separation referendum, 44 per cent said it should have. Another 32 per cent saw no issue with calling it without first seeking a mandate, and 24 per cent were unsure.

The poll also measured respondents’ concerns about foreign interference in the referendum process. A total of 61 per cent said they were either very or somewhat concerned. Among those who expressed concern, 74 per cent identified the U.S. government as a potential source of interference, 46 per cent cited groups funded by American billionaires, 35 per cent named the Russian government and 33 per cent named the Chinese government.

Those results describe respondents’ perceptions and concerns; they do not establish that foreign interference has occurred. Separately, 53 per cent of respondents considered it somewhat or very likely that the U.S. government would try to make Alberta its 51st state after the referendum. Forty-nine per cent considered it somewhat or very likely that members of the UCP government were under the influence of foreign governments or other foreign actors.

The AFL-backed survey also asked about provincial policy proposals, including some supported by organized labour. Support was highest for raising Alberta’s minimum wage to $20 an hour and adjusting it annually for inflation, at 70 per cent. Rent controls received 67 per cent support, reregulating electricity providers 62 per cent and an excess profits tax on oil and gas companies 52 per cent.

Support for several of those proposals crossed party lines. Among UCP supporters, 65 per cent backed the proposed minimum wage increase, 64 per cent supported reregulating electricity providers and 63 per cent supported rent controls. Other proposals drew less support: 27 per cent favoured replacing the RCMP with a provincial police force, while 25 per cent supported leaving the Canada Pension Plan and creating a provincial pension plan.

The referendum is scheduled for Monday. Question 10 asks whether Alberta should remain part of Canada or begin the legal process required to hold a future binding referendum on separation. The October vote will not itself decide whether Alberta becomes independent, and Elections Alberta says the referendum results are non-binding.

Williams said the non-binding status means the government can pursue many of its policy objectives regardless of the results. “It’s important to understand that …not none of the referendum questions are binding, and the premier could act on all of these things without this referendum authorizing her to do so,” Willams said.

She said the vote can still carry political consequences. “Things are unquestionably more challenging because she (Smith) has chosen this very complicated referendum process that’s costing a lot of money and a lot of effort on the part of many Albertans,” she said. Williams added that Smith will need to convince voters her government is focused on issues that matter most to them, including health care, affordability and education.

Smith has said she supports Alberta remaining part of Canada and that the referendum will give Albertans an opportunity to express their views about the province’s future. The AFL, which commissioned the survey, has publicly opposed the separation referendum.

Abacus Data surveyed 1,021 Alberta adults recruited through multiple opt-in online panels between Oct. 7 and 13. The results were weighted by age, gender, education and region to reflect census demographics. Since participants were not randomly selected, a conventional margin of error does not apply. The report’s figure of plus or minus 3.07 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, describes a comparable probability-based sample, not this survey. The full findings are available in the Abacus Data survey report.