CTV News Edmonton has reported:

Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi says a gap in motivation between Alberta voters who support separation and those who want the province to remain in Canada could affect the outcome of Monday’s referendum. He urged pro-Canada voters to cast ballots early, warning that supporters of separation are likely to vote while some federalists may assume the result is already settled.

Nenshi discussed the referendum and its possible outcomes in an interview with Alberta Primetime host Michael Higgins. The interview was edited for length and clarity. He said he was “a little bit worried” about the outcome, despite polling that he said shows most Albertans have decided to stay in Canada.

Nenshi said Premier Danielle Smith had become “almost an inconsequential figure” in the referendum she caused. In his view, voters are no longer listening to her, and there is nothing she could say now that would change anyone’s vote. He also criticized Smith for acting as though there is a large undecided vote.

“The polling is very clear that there’s maybe five to eight per cent of Albertans who are not locked in, but for many months, the vast majority of Albertans are locked in for Canada,” Nenshi said. He added that a small number of people are committed to separation.

The concern, he said, is that the two sides may not participate at the same rate. Nenshi said he often hears people ask why he is so concerned because separatists are a small group and are not expected to win. His brief response is: “Well, you have got to vote.”

He said supporters of separation view the referendum as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and will make every effort to cast a ballot. By contrast, he warned, federalists could encounter a five-hour lineup on election day and decide the outcome is secure without their vote. Nenshi cited the Brexit vote, Quebec referenda and the Scottish independence referendum as examples in which turnout was critical.

The Alberta NDP has deployed about 15,000 volunteers across the province and knocked on more than half a million doors, Nenshi said. The party has assembled a list of about 1.2 million pro-Canada voters in Alberta. Volunteers are contacting those voters to encourage participation in advance polls, where anyone can vote without giving an excuse. Nenshi said advance voting could mean shorter lineups and help people avoid long waits on election day.

Higgins asked whether a vote to remain in Canada would end the prospect of a second binding referendum on separation. Nenshi replied, “Not under this premier,” and said the other nine referendum questions posed a danger as well.

He urged voters to consider the motivation behind the questions, rather than deciding only on their wording. Nenshi said he had never before told citizens: “Don’t vote based on the words on the paper; vote based on the motivation.” He described five questions as anti-immigrant and argued that they would not improve services for Albertans.

Nenshi said denying refugee students access to public education would not improve public education for other children. He also said restricting temporary foreign workers’ access to public health care would not reduce waiting lists or ease pressures in emergency rooms. He characterized the proposals as scapegoating and distraction, and said the rhetoric could lead to division and anger. He compared it to “Trump-style rhetoric.”

One of the five questions would require citizenship to vote. Nenshi said the proposal may sound reasonable, but people must already attest to their citizenship to be added to the voter list. He said there has been “no evidence, zero, of voter fraud in Canada because non-citizens are voting,” and asked what motivation lay behind the question.

The remaining four questions concern constitutional matters, Nenshi said. He argued they would not result in constitutional change because other provinces and the federal government would not agree. He questioned the time and money spent on them, saying Smith’s government operates through chaos and grievance, keeping public anger alive and finding new issues for people to resent.

Higgins noted that Smith was not available to discuss who owns the referendum and asked what responsibility should rest with her and the governing United Conservative Party (UCP). Nenshi said, “We got here because of one politician, one politician prioritizing her own political survival over what’s right for Albertans.”

Asked what that responsibility would look like after the referendum, Nenshi predicted Smith would avoid it. He said support for separatism in Alberta has remained within a range of 15 to 21 or 22 per cent for decades, and that it had declined over the past year as the referendum approached. He rejected the idea that a major surge in support for separation had driven the vote.

Smith often says Albertans have grievances with Ottawa, Nenshi said. He argued that people instead have grievances with Smith over education, health care, jobs and the economy, areas that are largely under provincial control. He said Smith blames Ottawa and contrasted her with former conservative premiers Ralph Klein and Ed Stelmach, saying she “never takes responsibility.”

Nenshi said the only people who could make Smith accept responsibility were members of her own party and caucus. He was unsure they would do so, saying they had shown no evidence they would.

The Alberta legislature is scheduled to resume the week after the referendum. Nenshi said he was concerned that misinformation and disinformation during the campaign had weakened trust in institutions. His hope, he said, is that the legislature will return to normal, though he is worried that may not happen.

He said Elections Alberta is overwhelmed and that lineups will be long because the government has not funded the agency properly. Voting may be inconvenient, Nenshi said, but that should not put the results in doubt. He pointed to the checks and balances intended to ensure a fair election and said people on all sides should understand they are in place.

What happens in the legislature will depend on the referendum result, Nenshi said. He also urged people to watch for a legislature committee’s expected receipt of new electoral boundary maps a few days after the vote. He said the timing is intended to put the maps in the referendum’s news cycle so they receive less attention.

Nenshi warned that the UCP could try to influence the next election by changing boundaries in a way that dilutes votes for parties other than the UCP. He described that possibility as gerrymandering and said it could become a major issue in the legislative session.