OilersNation has reported:
The Edmonton Oilers close out the week with a home-and-home series against the Utah Mammoth, beginning Thursday at Rogers Place before the teams meet again in Utah on Saturday. The schedule sends Edmonton on a one-game road trip for the rematch, despite the Mammoth having hosted Toronto earlier in the week and the Oilers having flown past Utah on their way home from Los Angeles. UFC Fight Night is scheduled for Saturday night at Rogers Place, and the Oilers are likely to get a couple of nights in their own beds after their first extended road trip of the season.
The teams played three times in the regular season last year. Edmonton went 2-0-1 and outscored Utah 16-11 across those games. The Mammoth have started this season strongly and were leading the Central Division, described as stacked, at the time of writing. The series is expected to provide high-quality, exciting hockey to finish the week and begin the weekend.
One major question for Edmonton is whether Zach Hyman will return to the lineup for either game. His return appeared close earlier in the week, though he was not ready after the morning skate in Los Angeles. Oilers coach Mike Babcock said Hyman was day-to-day, leaving fans hopeful he could play against Utah.
Hyman’s availability would require a lineup change, with a player from Edmonton’s current five-game win streak likely to sit. Isaac Howard is seen as a likely candidate to leave the lineup and could be sent to Bakersfield for more playing time. The young forward’s speed has stood out, and he has recorded a couple of assists in six games this season. His play could earn him a place in many NHL lineups, but Edmonton’s depth may send him to Bakersfield for further reps.
Josh Samanski and Trent Frederic are other possible options to sit if Hyman returns. Both played limited minutes against the Los Angeles Kings, while Samanski also had only six minutes against the San Jose Sharks on Sunday. Each has been serviceable for Edmonton, but Hyman would be an upgrade.
Hyman is expected to play in the top six, which would affect at least a couple of lines. The Oilers’ top line has been effective to start the season, making a change there seem unlikely. Hyman could instead join Jason Dicksinson and Kasperi Kapanen on the second line, while Filip Hallander moves down, either to a line with Owen Michaels and Alex Formenton or to the fourth line.
The line featuring Michaels held up well during Edmonton’s California trip. Adding Hallander on the wing with Michaels and Formenton could give the third line more skill. If Howard is the player removed for Hyman, Mathieu Joseph could move down to the fourth line and bring grit and physicality there.
Utah will also have to decide how to defend Edmonton’s productive top line of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin. The trio has repeatedly driven play and supplied much of the Oilers’ offence, making it a difficult matchup for opponents. Utah’s top defensive forward line in recent games has featured Anders Lee, Barret Hayton and Kailer Yamamoto. It has posted the unit’s lowest expected goals per hour and shot attempts against per 60 minutes, as well as its best expected goal share.
The Mammoth may try to match that line against Edmonton’s top unit whenever possible. Doing so will be harder Thursday, when the Oilers have last change and can make their own matchups at home. Utah’s top six is built to score and may not match up well against Edmonton’s leading players, giving the Oilers a chance to use the home matchup advantage. Saturday’s game should offer Utah a better opportunity to create favourable matchups.
If the Lee, Hayton and Yamamoto combination cannot contain Edmonton’s top line, Utah could return to a unit used earlier in the season: Hayton with Lawson Crouse and Jack McBain. That trio would form a more dedicated shutdown line. McDavid, Draisaitl and Podkolzin have been on such a strong run that the choice of opposing line may not change the challenge substantially.
Utah’s forward depth could make matchups difficult throughout the lineup. All 13 forwards who have appeared for the Mammoth this season have recorded multiple points, and the team has distributed their ice time relatively evenly. In their most recent game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, every Utah forward played at least 10 minutes, while none played more than 20. The Mammoth led for most of that game, which made it easier to spread the minutes, but the approach still showed how readily the team rotates its lines.
That distribution keeps Utah’s leading players fresh and gives opponents fewer fixed matchups to target. The Mammoth could use multiple combinations across both games, whether or not they prioritize matching up against Edmonton’s top line. Their willingness to vary the lines also makes them a formidable opponent on the road.
Another test for Edmonton will be Utah’s power play, which was second in the NHL with a 34.5 per cent conversion rate at the time of writing. The top unit consists of Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther and Mikhail Sergachev. Guenther and Cooley have dangerous shots, Keller and Schmaltz bring speed and playmaking, and Sergachev offers another shooting option while anchoring the point.
Edmonton’s penalty kill has improved over its recent games. The Oilers killed all five penalties against Anaheim, shut down San Jose’s only power-play chance and went four-for-four against the Kings. Utah’s group will test Edmonton’s new system, and limiting time shorthanded will be important. When the Oilers do take penalties, their pressure and persistence will have to counter Utah’s skill and playmaking.
Strong goaltending has contributed to Edmonton’s recent penalty-killing results, but the Mammoth have shown they can score past any goaltender, even one playing well. The power-play matchup will therefore put pressure on both the Oilers’ defensive structure and their ability to keep Utah from setting up its leading shooters and playmakers.
The Oilers could also target Utah’s third defensive pairing of Andrew Peeke and Dmitri Simashev. The pair averages fewer than 15 minutes per game and has not earned the same level of trust from coach Andre Tourigny as the Mammoth’s bottom-six forwards. In Thursday’s game especially, Edmonton can use last change to put its top players on the ice against Peeke and Simashev, or seek an advantage for another line.
Utah gives more ice time to its top two defensive pairs. With games close together, Edmonton could try to wear those defencemen down through physical play and extended shifts in their own zone. The season is still early, so players may not feel the effects as much as they would if the games were in April. Still, taking available hits, cycling the puck and making Utah defend are among the ways Edmonton could press its advantage.
Edmonton’s own defence is also top-heavy in ice time, to an even greater extent than Utah’s. The same chance to exploit a weaker bottom pairing therefore exists for the Mammoth. The Oilers’ leading defencemen have so far done enough to make up for shortcomings from the lower pair, as has been the case with the team’s forward lines.
As players settle into their roles, Edmonton is expected to spread defensive minutes more evenly, particularly in the first game, when it controls last change. The Oilers could give their top two pairs more minutes on Saturday to make sure a preferred pairing is on the ice against Utah’s offensive stars. The series will test both teams’ depth, their deployment choices and their ability to sustain pressure through two games in quick succession.
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