CTV News Edmonton has reported:

Albertans voting in the Oct. 19 referendum will face a question about whether the province should remain in Canada or begin the legal process for a binding provincial referendum on separation. The question is being put to voters in addition to nine proposed questions from the Alberta government about immigration, social programs and the constitution. Its wording differs from the questions in two citizen-led petitions launched in Alberta since 2025, one supporting the province’s continued place in Canada and the other supporting separation.

The ballot asks: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?” Voters will choose between Option 1, Alberta should remain a province of Canada, and Option 2, the government should commence the legal process required under the Constitution for a binding referendum on separation.

Thomas Lukaszuk’s Forever Canada petition asked Albertans, “Do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada?” Mitch Sylvestre’s Alberta Prosperity Project asked, “Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become and independent state?” MacEwan University political scientist Brendan Boyd said the October ballot question is neither of those.

“The question that they’re going to be voting on in October is neither of those questions,” Boyd said. “Neither of those groups are actually particularly happy, because their petition, the question that they put a petition on, is not what the actual referendum is on. So, that’s one thing. The second thing is that it’s not a yes or no question.”

Boyd described the choice as one about whether the province should put the question of separation to Albertans in a later vote. “It’s a little bit tricky, in a sense,” he said. “It’s a question of whether you want the province to ask itself the question.”

“I think the big choice here is do you want separation to be at the forefront of the government agenda, the public agenda, for the next who knows how long?” Boyd said. If Option 2 wins, he said, the province would have work ahead, and the process could take years if it continues. “I think we need to keep in mind that this will take probably years, if the process continues on and continues on,” he said. “The government is asking, do we have a mandate? Or is there the appetite to use all our resources, time, energy, attention on this question of trying to move towards separation?”

Boyd’s MacEwan colleague Ryan McKinnell said some Albertans believe the province is treated unfairly by the federal government and that Ontario and Quebec receive priority. “Albertans tend to be of the view - some of it justified, some of that less so - that they’re put upon by Ottawa or that Ontario and Quebec sort of comes first,” he said.

McKinnell said a definitive majority for either option would be needed to move the issue beyond its place as a political priority for some Albertans. A result of 80-20 or 85-15 in favour of remaining in Canada might not end the debate, he said. In Red Deer and rural Alberta, he said, support tends to return to about 50-50. Outside Alberta’s two largest cities, he expects the issue to persist regardless of the result.

He pointed to Quebec’s 1980 referendum, when most voters chose to remain in Canada but the question continued to shape politics. “60/40 wasn’t enough for it to go away,” McKinnell said. In Quebec’s 1995 referendum, the vote was 50.58 per cent against secession and 49.42 per cent in favour, leaving the province about 50,000 votes short of beginning the process of becoming a sovereign country.

The Clarity Act, developed by former federal minister Stéphane Dion after the 1995 vote, and the Supreme Court of Canada’s 1998 secession reference could apply in Alberta if voters select Option 2 and the province later asks whether it should remain in Canada. Dion said the House of Commons would assess whether a question was clear and whether there was a clear majority before the federal government took responsibility for negotiations.

“If this question is clear, then the House of Commons will see the question is clear and will give the Government of Canada the responsibility, if there is a clear majority, to negotiate the end of Canada in Alberta,” Dion said. He cautioned that a negotiated secession would be difficult and would require a sustained public desire to leave. “This will be extremely difficult to do. The will of secession needs to be there. Otherwise, people will change their mind, and negotiators will have to stop the negotiated secession because people want to stay in Canada.”

Dion said there is no preset threshold for what counts as a clear majority. “You don’t come with a threshold, in abstraction, you look at the result when you see it,” he said. “A referendum is a consultation, and you assess the result when you see it.” He added that negotiations would require certainty that leaving Confederation was what people wanted.

“You cannot negotiate that if you don’t have this certainty, that is what the people want,” Dion said. “If we go, to a referendum on secession, then, it means practically the breakup of the country. If it’s the case and if there is a secession, the breakup of the country, and the end of the federal responsibility within the province, in this case, Alberta, the government of Canada needs to be sure that it’s what Albertans want to stop to be Canadian, to get out of Canada, to not be part of Canada anymore, to make an Alberta an independent country.”

Dion also said the federal government should take part in advocating for Alberta to remain in Canada during the current referendum. “During the current referendum, I think the federal government should be involved,” he said. “Albertans will vote, but all Canadians will be affected.”

The debate is visible in High River, where neighbours Janet Isbister and Mary Jane Strate support different futures for Alberta. Isbister, who favours independence, has displayed Alberta flags and signs reading “Send Ottawa a Message” on her home. “I’m very interested in Ottawa giving us what we need. We give them what they need, so we need what we need,” she said. She said her late mother was pro-Canada, while she is like her father and “pro-Alberta,” adding, “all we want is fairness.”

Strate supports Alberta remaining in Canada. “I think the country needs to be together, work together,” she said. “It’s been happening. I think it’s good for Canada.” The neighbours said they get along despite their political differences. Isbister said, “We get along great. It’s a democracy; we’re allowed to want what we want.”

A separate account of their relationship described the pair as friendly but said they do not discuss politics. In that account, Strate said, “We’ve never talked about it, because I thought if she said anything to me, I would say, ‘Well, if you don’t like it here, move.’” She added, “I love Alberta and I love the Alberta flag, but I don’t anymore now that it’s flying the way it is.”

Premier Danielle Smith said she expects the process for a second vote to take shape if most Albertans choose Option 2. She cited a legal dispute over whether, or to what extent, the government must consult First Nations before asking the question. “We are in the middle of a legal fight over the extent to which, or even if we have to consult with First Nations in asking this question,” Smith said. “We also have a Clarity Act, which says that the House of Commons has to approve the question. So, there’s a couple of legal hurdles.”

Smith said she will vote for Option 1 and hopes other Albertans do the same. She said the government needs direction on whether to invest in Canada, set aside differences and address Albertans’ grievances, or pursue a binding referendum in a few months. The referendum is scheduled for Oct. 19.