More oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz than at the start of the war, but shipments remain below pre-war levels and rely on costly workarounds as attacks on vessels and uncertainty continue. Energy and maritime experts say the increased traffic has not restored normal shipping or eased pressure on fuel markets, while the U.S. Navy’s ability to sustain its presence in the region remains uncertain.

Industry trackers recorded between 13 million and 17 million barrels of oil a day passing through the strait last week, with between six and 17 tankers making the crossing daily. Before the war, an average of 20 million barrels a day moved through the waterway. Reports of the recent increase have been presented as a success for the Trump administration, while experts caution that the wider disruption persists.

Rose Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities, described the situation as an unresolved standoff. “We're still in this limbo where Iran can't fully close the strait, but the U.S. can't fully open it either,” she told Responsible Statecraft.

The United States has sent another carrier strike group, led by the USS Roosevelt, to the Gulf. The deployment is intended to maintain a naval presence to protect oil transfers and could support future military operations. The United States has not reached a peace deal with Iran, and Kelanic said keeping oil moving under those conditions requires a substantial military commitment.

“If the U.S. wants oil to go through the Strait without getting to a peace deal with Iran, it needs to commit a large amount of military force to do that,” Kelanic said. “Whether that's really sustainable or wise or fair to the American taxpayer is an open question.”

President Donald Trump and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth have described the Iranian military as obliterated, but attacks on vessels attempting to cross the strait continued last week, according to the report. Many incidents received little attention from mainstream media. Pro-war influencers, including Will Chamberlain, posted “daily reminders” on X that the “strait was open and we are winning,” while criticizing “doomers” who said the war policy had failed and was hurting Americans.

Shipping activity is tracked through vessels’ Automatic Identification Systems, radar, satellite imagery and measurements of crude volumes. Some tracking services combine several sources. Kpler, a private data and analytics platform frequently cited in recent press reports, said oil transits averaged 13 million barrels a day at the end of the month.

Kpler is also monitoring oil leaving the Middle East through Red Sea ports connected to the Saudi East-West pipeline. The pipeline returned to service at the end of September and has provided a bypass route for another four million barrels a day to leave the region, according to the company.

Some of the higher volume through the strait has depended on ship-to-ship transfers, said Amir Handjani, an energy lawyer and public affairs executive, in an interview with Responsible Statecraft. Private companies bring fuel cargo into ports, turn off ships’ Automatic Identification System transponders and transfer the cargo to government “shuttle” vessels. Those vessels travel through the strait without transmitting their location, then transfer the oil to larger tankers in safer waters. Ship-to-ship transfers are also used on routes that bypass Hormuz.

The process is risky and expensive, Handjani said, and depends on investment from the U.S. Navy. “It’s not moving without cost and without huge investment by the U.S. Navy. Is that sustainable?” he asked. “I don’t know, I guess anything is possible.”

Government tankers can avoid insurance costs, but premiums for private shipping have climbed partly because attacks continue. Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs, needed to collect cargo from shuttle vessels, are also in short supply. Maritime expert Sal Mercogliano said in an Oct. 3 podcast episode that physical oil movements were recovering through longer voyages, ship-to-ship transfers, rerouting and high war-risk costs rather than a return to normal shipping.

Mercogliano cited rates of $1.2 million for very large crude carriers leaving the Persian Gulf and $800,000 for those travelling from the Gulf of Oman to Asia. The elevated rates and longer routes add to the expense of moving fuel even as volumes recover.

Diesel supplies face additional pressures. Crude oil must first pass the Hormuz chokepoint, and fewer refineries are available after Iranian attacks on facilities in the Gulf. Refineries in Ukraine and Russia have also been targets in the war there, while Moscow has banned exports as a result.

The United States is a major diesel exporter, but its shipments have not replaced the reduction in global supply. Diesel is used in overland shipping, farming and transportation across the United States, Europe and the Global South, so the shrinking supply has contributed to higher prices in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Under pressure from the Trump administration, G7 countries agreed Friday to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from reserves. That release follows an earlier agreement in March through the International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels. Trump said European countries were not meeting their commitments and threatened to ban U.S. diesel exports. Experts told Responsible Statecraft such a ban would worsen prices in the United States and abroad over the long term.

U.S. oil reserves are at their lowest level since 1983, experts said, after the Biden and Trump administrations released hundreds of millions of barrels during the wars in Ukraine and Iran. The recent rise in vessel traffic through Hormuz does not resolve the supply problems. “It's all still net negative - the amount that's getting out - compared to what the market demands,” Kelanic said. “We're depleting our inventories more slowly, but those buffers are also much less robust than they were in February.”

Ezana Tedla, a macroeconomic analyst at the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, said unresolved threats to shipping are keeping markets uncertain. Brent crude was still priced at $102 a barrel on Sunday, despite the positive reports about the strait the previous week. Tedla said global macroeconomic and financial data showed significant pressure from the unresolved conflict. He pointed to a recent research note from J.P. Morgan that, he said, “said we don’t know what’s going on” and therefore could not forecast prices.

Experts also questioned how long the U.S. Navy can maintain the pace needed to enforce the blockade and provide the security umbrella for ships crossing the strait. The Navy is already stretched thin, with fewer vessels available to rotate into and out of the Middle East without weakening its security posture elsewhere.

The report said fuel prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels before voters go to the polls next month. Even if the administration presents gains in Hormuz traffic as progress, the shipments do not signal that the war has ended. Shipping costs and the risk of attacks remain, and vessels carrying dry bulk goods, including fertilizer, aluminum, petrochemicals, grains, sulfur, cement and industrial minerals, remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.

Handjani said a deal with Iran is what markets are seeking. “Unless (Trump) signs a deal with Iran of course, that would help a lot,” he said. “That is what the market is really looking for.”

Based on reporting by Responsible Statecraft.